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Monday, 28 August 2017

Chepstow 3.25, Monday, August 28

In the Orchard Media Apprentice Selling Stakes (3.25) at Chepstow on Monday, three turf wins after June 30, 2016 mean that Go Amber Go carries 15lb in penalties and consequently has 10lb to find with Dream Farr at today’s weights, according to official ratings. However, there are reasons for believing that the official figures don’t tell the whole story as far as this race is concerned. Go Amber Go is just 2lb higher in the weights than when winning over 6 furlongs, on the prevailing good going, at Windsor in April and has run when on both visits here, including over course and distance two starts ago.

By contrast, Dream Farr is still a maiden on turf, albeit after just five attempts, and his recent form in that sphere has come on good to soft, soft and heavy going. Indeed, he has raced just once on going faster than good to soft on turf and has only been able to keep on at the same pace in the closing stages of his recent races over 6 furlongs. Of course, he takes a significant drop in class here, so must be feared but, on an unfamiliar track – which doesn’t suit every horse – on going faster than ideal, he may be vulnerable to Go Amber Go, who’s a pretty speedy sort when on song.

Selection: Chepstow 3.25 Go Amber Go to win