november handicap

[istabraq]

really strongly fancy bourne for this. cracking win over the course last time and the form is working out well with the 3rd winning a decent race at newmarket subsequently, beating the favourite with the 3rd 9l back, dark promise (6th in the donny race) 2l further back in 4th

bourne looked well in control at the end running on strongly and with the extra distance of this race sure to suit i think the 5lb rise is lenient to say the least. there must be more to come for a lightly raced cumani horse and he must have brought him back so late in the season with this being the plan all along. willing foe and senate could be tough to seperate if go throught the times up form line and they both have to give weight to bourne - though the 3yo allowance will help. but i get the feeling senate has to dominate which will be tough in this, plus the form of his good win over c & d is not working out - all beaten horses to have run have been beat.

i think whatever beats bourne will win, but will wait for the draw.

[Tasmanian Devil]

Good job you held off Isty as Bourne doesn't run.

[istabraq]

yes i feared as much , TD. shame though i believe he is currently very well handicapped and definitely one to stay on the right side of. not really sure where to go with this race now, senate is the first horse i noted with this race in mind when he hosed up over c & d, then he dissapointed at newbury. now there are excuses aplenty for that run - only 7 days since last race, wide draw, good to firm ground are the most important ones. the cynical me actually thinks this might be a ploy by connections to run him in a race he had virtually no chance of winning in order to stop his mark rising too harshly to prevent him having a real chance in this ( which must have been the plan ) they won it last year.

the problem being nothing he beat over c & d has won subsequently, with only times up running with real credit when 2nd to willing foe on more or less the same terms, so these 3 at the revised terms should finish quite close together really. with times up twice the price of the other 2, yet that is slightly understanding as the other two probably have more to come. senates biggest problem could be the draw again, getting to the lead, and staying there will be more difficult than his last win. though the way he kept on and then pulled away that day was the mark of a horse going the right way. willing foe could still be anything.

if i had to bet right this minute i'd go senate, but i will have a proper look at whats left. was really sweet on bourne.

[alun]

Jo'burg beat Start Right by 5.75L's in the Cambridgeshire when coming 1st of 10 from the wrong side of the draw (7th overall). That's a fair hammering to be handing out to field of 10 in a competitive handicap and he's done it without much assistance having had to cut out the running himself on his side. He'd won before that, and was running under a less than convincing jockey at Nottingham LTO. You could assess him 1, 1, 2 on his latest if you chose to thus.

[istabraq]

senate is not worth the risk at the price. he could win, but just as easily finish last if he gets in a battle for the lead. prompter is over priced for a horse competing well at a high level all season and his mark has dropped despite this. through a strict line through magicalmysterytour he holds senate, and has only contested 2 handicaps. the 1st was his 1st attempt at 12f and the second was with a claimer on board. the pace of the race will suit perfectly and he must be a solid e/w chance

[Tasmanian Devil]

I like Times Up e/w with Skybet @ 14/1, first 5 places. Shouldn't beat the front 2 in the market but he's always thereabouts in the big handicaps. Going might be an issue.

[AbleTony]

palomar ew for me

[Tasmanian Devil]

I like Times Up e/w with Skybet @ 14/1, first 5 places

[istabraq]

nice one , TD. considered him but thought the ground would be an issue. zahoo mugged in listed event - surely bourne would have pissed this off 87.