AINTREE 2009 FESTIVAL SATURDAY

[bobhorse]

SATURDAY

2M John Smiths H/cap Hurdle Listed (0%); All winners carried 10st 10lbs or less. 5&6yo are best age group with 8/10 wins. 4/9 recent winners Irish trained although P Hiobbs is leading trainer with winners in 2006 & 2008.

2M John Smiths Maghull Nov Chase – Gr1- (35%); P Nicholls is top trainer with 4 wins in 1999, 2002, 2003 & 2007. A 1st/2nd place in either of last two completed runs is a common factor. Five 5yo winners seen in last 10 years. All winners last raced at Festival (except 2001 when cancelled) although this has not proved a good race for winners winning at following year’s Cheltenham Festival. Longest SP seen since 1999 was 6/1.

2M 4F Scottish & Newcastle Aintree Hurdle – Gr1- (25%); Irish runners have taken 6/10 races including five since 2003. 6-8yo are the best age group with 8/10 wins. Frequently won by a horse that last ran at the Festival at Cheltenham with triple winner Al Eile bucking this trend. Apart from the 2005 winner the remainder finished 5th or better on their last completed race.

3 Mile John Smiths H/cap Hurdle - (30%); All winners carried 11st or less. 8/10 winners finished 6th or better in last ‘completed’ race. Jonjo O’Neill is leading trainer with winners in 2002, 2006 & 2007. Whilst favourites record in the longer term is only average the last three favourites have obliged!

4M 4F John Smiths Grand National Gr 3 (20%); Irish trained runners have taken 6 of last 10 races. No winner has carried more than 11st 1lb and that was a new weight carrying feat by Hedgehunter in 2005 being the highest weight carried for over 20 years. A last run 20-49 days earlier appears essential. In terms of age groups 9&10yo seem best having won 7/10 races since 1999. There is also a debate about whether winners need to have a good record over the fences at Aintree. Only one winner since 1989 had not completed the race in its previous outing and all but one of the other winners since 1999 had finished 5th or better on last prep race. Other stats to watch out for include: A win over 3m or further, winner of a race worth £18k+ and a rating of 136-148.

2M 4F John Smiths Nov H/cap Chase – Due to the fact that the race terms have been frequently changed over the last 10 years trends for this race are probably not reliable.

2M John Smiths Champion NH Flat Race Gr2 (22%); A 1st/2nd run in either of last two outings appears essential. Four of last seven winners were ridden by conditional jockeys. Last 5 winners also had SP’s of 14/1 or greater so not the best ‘getting out stakes‘ race to close the festival. 5&6yo age group preferred with 7/9 wins between this age group.

[wenger]

2.50 Aintree

I am a Jered fan and he has a live chance, Celestial Halo if he can get over his exertions would have to be hard to conquer, Al Eile been there woren the t-shirt but is he 100%? He will need to be, Solwhit lightly race and progressive but will the ground suit? Dithering again CH probably but also leaning towards Katchit, who ran a corker all things considering at Cheltenham, a step up in trip i assume is logical, form at Aintree etc etc... More Cheltenham form on the line!

[Grasshopper]

Ground will be fine for Solwhit, Wenger, and step-up in trip should be fine too. His form against Jazz Messenger and Ninetieth Minute looks decent, and he is the least exposed in this field, imo. I was on reasonably early, but there are some doubts about him travelling over apparently.

[wenger]

Any news on why the doubts Grassy?

[Grasshopper]

No particular insight, wenger, other than doubts expressed on other forums. The price is holding up though (actually shortened today) so still hopeful he runs.

[Grasshopper]

Solwhit has been cut again, Wenger - shortening with six firms today, and now top-price of 7/1. Still no real word on whether he runs or not, but the market would tend to suggest he will.

[Grasshopper]

Luvvly jubbly.

[wenger]

Luvvly jubbly.

Doubly luvvly Jubbly Grassy - just got back and slightly wrecked but your confidence on the ground helped - i owe you a pint or two!